Purpose: We determined the demographic and clinical profile of men who elect surveillance as the initial management of prostate cancer as well as the incidence and predictors of secondary treatment of these patients.
Materials and methods: The Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urological Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) is a national disease registry of patients with various stages and treatments of prostate cancer. Using this database of 4,458 men we identified 329 (8.2%) who elected surveillance as the initial management of prostate cancer. Patients choosing watchful waiting were compared to other CaPSURE participants using the chi-square test. The likelihood of treatment initiation in the watchful waiting group was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. After adjusting for patient age, race, prostate specific antigen (PSA) at diagnosis, clinical T stage and total Gleason score the Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine significant predictors of treatment initiation.
Results: Compared with others in the database, patients on watchful waiting were more likely to be 75 years old or older (51% versus 16%, p <0.001), white (93% versus 85%, p <0.001), and have lower serum PSA (p <0.001), organ confined disease (97% versus 88%, p <0.001) and a total Gleason score of 7 or less (97% versus 88%, p <0.001). In the watchful waiting group there was a 52% likelihood of treatment initiation within 5 years of the diagnosis. Significant predictors of secondary treatment were age younger than 65 years and elevated serum PSA at diagnosis. Neither race, extraprostatic stage cT3 disease nor higher total Gleason score was a significant predictor of treatment.
Conclusions: Men who elect initial watchful waiting for prostate cancer tend to be older, have lower serum PSA and more favorable disease characteristics than those who seek treatment. PSA at diagnosis is the dominant factor for predicting secondary treatment.