Metastatic tumor doubling time: most important prehepatectomy predictor of survival and nonrecurrence of hepatic colorectal cancer metastasis

World J Surg. 2004 Mar;28(3):263-70. doi: 10.1007/s00268-003-7088-3. Epub 2004 Feb 17.

Abstract

We determined the relative value of the metastatic colorectal cancer doubling time as a predictor of recurrence and survival after hepatectomy in comparison with other established predictors. Consecutive patients who underwent hepatic resection ( n = 144) for colorectal cancer liver metastases were studied retrospectively to identify factors that influence overall survival and recurrence in the remnant liver. Overall 5-year survival and nonrecurrence rates were 49.8% and 50.8%, respectively. By multivariate analysis, large liver tumors ( p = 0.038), p53 expression by the liver tumor (p = 0.011), and a short liver metastasis doubling time (< or = 45 days, p = 0.013) negatively affected survival; doubling times > 45 days (adjusted relative risk 0.06; p < 0.001) positively influenced disease-free survival. In patients with remnant liver recurrence, a short doubling time was associated with short disease-free intervals (7.3 +/- 6.2 months), multiple metastases (63.6%), and fewer attempts at repeat hepatectomy (22.7%). The doubling time determines tumor size and reflects the patient's immune and nutritional status. A short doubling time is the most reliable risk factor for multiple metastases, early recurrence, and poor prognosis. Further studies with a larger number of patients are needed to confirm this conclusion.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Adenocarcinoma / mortality
  • Adenocarcinoma / secondary*
  • Adenocarcinoma / surgery
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Biopsy, Needle
  • Colorectal Neoplasms / mortality
  • Colorectal Neoplasms / pathology*
  • Colorectal Neoplasms / surgery
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Female
  • Hepatectomy / adverse effects
  • Hepatectomy / methods*
  • Humans
  • Immunohistochemistry
  • Liver Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Liver Neoplasms / secondary*
  • Liver Neoplasms / surgery
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Neoplasm Invasiveness / pathology*
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Preoperative Care / methods
  • Probability
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Survival Analysis
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome