This is a prospective study of breast cancer risk in relation to nipple aspirate fluid cytology in 2,701 volunteer white women from the San Francisco Bay Area first enrolled between 1973 and 1980. The women were not pregnant or lactating and were free of breast cancer within 6 months of entry into the study. The breast cancer status of this cohort was determined between June 1988 and April 1991. Follow-up was complete for 87% (n = 2,343) of the cohort, representing 29,961 person-years and an average of 12.7 years of follow-up. The overall breast cancer incidence was 4.4% (104 of 2,343) and rose with fluid cytology findings as follows: no fluid obtained, 2.6% (9 of 352); unsatisfactory specimen, 4.8% (15 of 315); normal cytology, 4.3% (56 of 1,291); epithelial hyperplasia, 5.5% (18 of 327); and atypical hyperplasia, 10.3% (6 of 58). Relative risks for breast cancer and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated by Cox regression, adjusting for age and year of entry. Compared with the relative risk for women who yielded no fluid, relative risks were: unsatisfactory specimen, relative risk (RR) = 1.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6-3.3); normal cytology, RR = 1.8 (95% CI 0.9-3.6); epithelial hyperplasia, RR = 2.5 (95% CI 1.1-5.5); and atypical hyperplasia, RR = 4.9 (95% CI 1.7-13.9). These findings were strongest for and were mainly confined to women aged 25-54 years. Women with atypical hyperplasia and a first-degree family history of breast cancer were six times more likely to develop breast cancer than were women with atypical hyperplasia but without a family history of breast cancer (95% CI 1.0-30.2). These findings provide strong support for our hypothesis that hyperplasia and atypical hyperplasia diagnosed in nipple aspirates of breast fluid are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer.