Objectives: To evaluate whether fuzzy operators can be usefully applied to the interpretation of genotypic HIV-1 drug resistance by experts, and to improve the prediction of salvage therapy outcome by adapting interpretation rules of genotypic resistance on the basis of their association with virological response data.
Methods: We used a clinical dataset of 231 patients failing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and starting salvage therapy with baseline resistance genotyping and virological outcomes after 3 and 6 months. A set of rules predicting genotypic resistance was initially derived from an expert (ADL). Rules were implemented using a fuzzy logic approach and the virological outcomes dataset used for the training phase. The resulting algorithm was validated using a separate set of 184 selected patients by correlating the resulting predicted activity with observed virological response at 3 months. For comparison, the expert systems from the drug resistance group of the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA (ANRS-AC11) and the algorithm from the Stanford's HIV drug resistance database (Stanford HIVdb) were evaluated on the same set.
Results: The starting algorithm had a correlation with virological outcomes of R2=0.06 (P=0.0001). After the training phase the correlation with virological outcomes increased to R2=0.19 (P<0.000001). In the validation set of patients, the activity of the salvage regimen predicted by the fuzzy algorithm was the only variable independently predictive of the 3-month viral load change even after adjusting by the activity predicted by the two expert systems and baseline viral load (for each 10% salvage regimen's activity increase, mean HIV RNA change from baseline: -0.27 log10 copies/ml; 95% CI -0.39, -0.15).
Conclusion: Using fuzzy operators in a virological outcomes training database to implement a rules-based algorithm for genotypic resistance interpretation, significant improvements of outcomes prediction were obtained. The resulting algorithm showed an independent predictive capability of virological outcomes over that of two rules-based interpretation algorithms made by experts. Although the system was trained and validated on a limited number of cases, the approach deserves further evaluation.