Objective: To analyze trends in age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates in Mexico for the period of 1980 through 2000.
Method: The trends were assessed using the adjusted rates of mortality from lung cancer, year of death, year of birth, age at death, state, and standard population. The standardized mortality rate and the index of potential years of life lost were used to compare incidence and premature deaths. The standardized mortality rate was analyzed by age groups according to the age at death (30-74 years), five-year observation period (1980-1999), and birth cohort (1910-1950). Nonparametric Spearman correlations were calculated for per capita tobacco consumption, social marginalization, and emigration.
Results: The adjusted mortality rate from lung cancer declined from 7.91 per 100 000 in 1989 to 5.96 per 100 000 in 2000. This pattern correlated with the reduction in per capita tobacco consumption, from 2.145 kg in 1959 to 0.451 kg in 1982. The latent period for the appearance of lung cancer in Mexico was 30 years. The male:female ratio was 2.4:1. The highest adjusted mortality rate was found in men who were 70-74 years old at the time of death. The adjusted mortality rates were low among the cohorts of persons born in 1945 or later, and those rates declined over the 1980-2000 period. The index of potential years of life lost and the incidence of premature death were greater among men. The mortality rates for the cohorts of men born between 1915 and 1940 showed a slight decline over the 1980-2000 period; beginning with men born in 1944 the rates increased slightly, mainly among men 30-34 and 35-39 years old at the time of death. For women the adjusted mortality rates were highest among those 75 or older; the rates gradually declined among the women born between 1945 and 1960, with the largest decrease among women 30-34 years old. The adjusted mortality rates varied according to the five-year observation period, the year of death, and birth cohort and gender. The correlation coefficient for the adjusted mortality rate by state and social marginalization was -0.70 (P = 0.00). There was no statistically significant correlation with the index of emigration (P = 0.56).
Conclusions: Mortality from lung cancer has declined in Mexico. Morbidity and premature death due to lung cancer are greater in the states of northern Mexico.