Containing pandemic influenza at the source

Science. 2005 Aug 12;309(5737):1083-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1115717. Epub 2005 Aug 3.

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (R0) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an R0 as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R(0) as high as 2.4.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Antiviral Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Asia, Southeastern / epidemiology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs
  • Infant
  • Influenza A virus* / immunology
  • Influenza Vaccines*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control*
  • Influenza, Human / transmission
  • Influenza, Human / virology
  • Models, Statistical
  • Quarantine*
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Thailand / epidemiology
  • Time Factors
  • Vaccination

Substances

  • Antiviral Agents
  • Influenza Vaccines