Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

BMC Vet Res. 2006 Jan 16:2:3. doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-2-3.

Abstract

Background: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features.

Results: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene.

Conclusion: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary*
  • Foot-and-Mouth Disease / epidemiology
  • Foot-and-Mouth Disease / transmission*
  • Models, Biological
  • Risk
  • United Kingdom / epidemiology