The MISCAN-Fadia continuous tumor growth model for breast cancer

J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr. 2006:(36):56-65. doi: 10.1093/jncimonographs/lgj009.

Abstract

The MISCAN-Fadia model was used to analyze the impact of screening and adjuvant treatment on U.S. breast cancer mortality between 1975 and 2000. MISCAN-Fadia uses the concept of "fatal diameter" to model survival and screening benefit and is based on continuous tumor growth. It consists of four major components: population, natural history, screening, and treatment. Population parameters were quantified using U.S. population data. Most natural history and screening parameters were fitted to the Swedish Two County screening trial data; some were based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Adjuvant treatment parameters were quantified using data from the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group's meta-analysis. The simulated trend in incidence matches the observed trend reasonably well; the simulated mortality is equal to the observed in 1975 but becomes increasingly too high in 2000. We estimate that screening leads to a 15% and adjuvant treatment to a 21% mortality reduction in the year 2000.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / therapeutic use
  • Breast Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Breast Neoplasms / drug therapy
  • Breast Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Chemotherapy, Adjuvant
  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Mammography / statistics & numerical data
  • Mass Screening / statistics & numerical data
  • Meta-Analysis as Topic
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Neoplasm Invasiveness
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Survival Rate
  • Sweden / epidemiology
  • United States / epidemiology