A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Feb;136(2):263-72. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807008400. Epub 2007 Apr 20.

Abstract

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • Cattle
  • Cattle Diseases / epidemiology
  • Cattle Diseases / transmission*
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Infection Control / methods
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pennsylvania
  • Prevalence
  • Salmonella / classification
  • Salmonella / isolation & purification
  • Salmonella Infections, Animal / epidemiology
  • Salmonella Infections, Animal / transmission*