Infinite mixture-of-experts model for sparse survival regression with application to breast cancer

BMC Bioinformatics. 2010 Oct 26;11 Suppl 8(Suppl 8):S8. doi: 10.1186/1471-2105-11-S8-S8.

Abstract

Background: We present an infinite mixture-of-experts model to find an unknown number of sub-groups within a given patient cohort based on survival analysis. The effect of patient features on survival is modeled using the Cox's proportionality hazards model which yields a non-standard regression component. The model is able to find key explanatory factors (chosen from main effects and higher-order interactions) for each sub-group by enforcing sparsity on the regression coefficients via the Bayesian Group-Lasso.

Results: Simulated examples justify the need of such an elaborate framework for identifying sub-groups along with their key characteristics versus other simpler models. When applied to a breast-cancer dataset consisting of survival times and protein expression levels of patients, it results in identifying two distinct sub-groups with different survival patterns (low-risk and high-risk) along with the respective sets of compound markers.

Conclusions: The unified framework presented here, combining elements of cluster and feature detection for survival analysis, is clearly a powerful tool for analyzing survival patterns within a patient group. The model also demonstrates the feasibility of analyzing complex interactions which can contribute to definition of novel prognostic compound markers.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Breast Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Breast Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Cohort Studies
  • Computer Simulation
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Markov Chains
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Regression Analysis*
  • Reproducibility of Results