Effect and clinical prediction of worsening renal function in acute decompensated heart failure

Abstract

We aimed to establish the prevalence and effect of worsening renal function (WRF) on survival among patients with acute decompensated heart failure. Furthermore, we sought to establish a risk score for the prediction of WRF and externally validate the previously established Forman risk score. A total of 657 consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure presenting to the emergency department and undergoing serial creatinine measurements were enrolled. The potential of the clinical parameters at admission to predict WRF was assessed as the primary end point. The secondary end point was all-cause mortality at 360 days. Of the 657 patients, 136 (21%) developed WRF, and 220 patients had died during the first year. WRF was more common in the nonsurvivors (30% vs 41%, p = 0.03). Multivariate regression analysis found WRF to independently predict mortality (hazard ratio 1.92, p <0.01). In a single parameter model, previously diagnosed chronic kidney disease was the only independent predictor of WRF and achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60. After the inclusion of the blood gas analysis parameters into the model history of chronic kidney disease (hazard ratio 2.13, p = 0.03), outpatient diuretics (hazard ratio 5.75, p <0.01), and bicarbonate (hazard ratio 0.91, p <0.01) were all predictive of WRF. A risk score was developed using these predictors. On receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the Forman and Basel prediction rules achieved an area under the curve of 0.65 and 0.71, respectively. In conclusion, WRF was common in patients with acute decompensated heart failure and was linked to significantly worse outcomes. However, the clinical parameters failed to adequately predict its occurrence, making a tailored therapy approach impossible.