To explore the relationship between absolute dendritic cell (DC) counts at the early stage of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection (PHI) and subsequent disease progression, we performed a prospective study of 16 rapid progressors (RPs) and 12 typical progressors (TPs) from a PHI cohort of men who have sex with men. Significantly decreased plasmacytoid DC (pDC) and myeloid DC (mDC) counts in the blood of RPs were observed at study entry as compared with TPs and healthy HIV-1-negative subjects. Low baseline pDC counts were significantly associated with rapid disease progression after adjustment for baseline CD4(+) T cell counts, mDC counts, and HIV-1 load. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that low pDC counts were strongly associated with rapid disease progression. Our findings demonstrated the predictive value of blood absolute pDC counts at baseline in PHI for HIV-1 disease progression. Further studies are required to confirm this notion.