Demonstrating freedom from equine influenza in New South Wales, Australia, following the 2007 outbreak

Aust Vet J. 2011 Jul:89 Suppl 1:164-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00779.x.

Abstract

Objective: To quantify the probability of freedom from equine influenza (EI) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, based on analysis of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing.

Methods: Testing in the infected areas of NSW during the period 1 January to 30 April 2008.

Results: Data from the random survey were collated and analysed to provide estimates of the probability of detecting EI if it was present at a prevalence ranging from 0.01% to 0.5%. The sensitivity estimates were then combined with a prior estimate of the probability of freedom in a simulation model, to estimate the posterior probability of freedom from EI (given the negative results of the random survey).

Conclusions: The very large volume of PCR tests performed provided a very high level of confidence that EI had been successfully eradicated from NSW.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation
  • Data Collection
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary*
  • Horse Diseases / diagnosis
  • Horse Diseases / epidemiology
  • Horse Diseases / prevention & control
  • Horse Diseases / virology*
  • Horses
  • Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype / genetics
  • Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype / isolation & purification*
  • Models, Biological
  • New South Wales / epidemiology
  • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / diagnosis
  • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / epidemiology
  • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / prevention & control
  • Orthomyxoviridae Infections / veterinary*
  • Population Surveillance / methods
  • Prevalence
  • RNA, Viral / chemistry
  • RNA, Viral / genetics
  • Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction / veterinary

Substances

  • RNA, Viral