The effect of including cystatin C or creatinine in a cardiovascular risk model for asymptomatic individuals: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

Am J Epidemiol. 2011 Oct 15;174(8):949-57. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwr185. Epub 2011 Aug 30.

Abstract

The authors studied the incremental value of adding serum cystatin C or creatinine to the Framingham risk score variables (FRSVs) for the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) among 6,653 adults without clinical CVD utilizing the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2008). CVD events included coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and peripheral arterial disease. Variables were transformed to yield optimal prediction of 6-year CVD events in sex-stratified models with FRSVs alone, FRSVs + cystatin C, and FRSVs + creatinine. Risk prediction in the 3 models was assessed by using the C statistic, and net reclassification improvement was calculated. The mean ages were 61.9 and 64.6 years for individuals with and without diabetes, respectively. After 6 years of follow-up, 447 (7.2%) CVD events occurred. In the total cohort, no significant change in the C statistic was noted with FRSVs + cystatin C and FRSVs + creatinine compared with FRSVs alone, and net reclassification improvement for CVD risk was extremely small and not significant with the addition of cystatin C or creatinine to FRSVs. Similar findings were noted after stratifying by baseline presence of diabetes. In conclusion, the addition of cystatin C or serum creatinine to FRSVs does not improve CVD risk prediction among adults without clinical CVD.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / blood*
  • Creatinine / blood*
  • Cystatin C / blood*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Assessment / methods

Substances

  • Cystatin C
  • Creatinine