Analysis of climatic and environmental variables associated with the occurrence of West Nile virus in Morocco

Abstract

West Nile disease (WND) is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne infectious diseases in the World. In Morocco the first WND cases were reported in equines in 1996. After an apparent epidemiological silence, WND re-occurred in 2003 and in 2010, when the disease was reported in equines living in the central and north-western part of the country. Eco-climatic variables are known to influence the mosquito presence and abundance and, therefore, the probability of occurrence of mosquito-borne infections. The remote sensed values of Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and rainfall registered from 2001 to 2010 were evaluated for a possible association with the occurrence of WND cases in 2003 and in 2010. In the zones where WND cases occurred, NDVI values recorded in 2003 and 2010, from June to November, were significantly higher than those registered during the same months in the rest of the decade. Rainfall data showed higher peaks in 2003 and 2010, when the number of days with extreme rainfall was significantly higher during 1-2 months before the occurrence of WND cases. Temperature does not seem to play an important role in Moroccan epidemiological conditions.