Predictors of mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing extrahepatic surgery: comparison of Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease-based indices

ANZ J Surg. 2014 Nov;84(11):832-6. doi: 10.1111/ans.12198. Epub 2013 May 6.

Abstract

Background: Underlying liver cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality after surgery. Previous studies have reported conflicting results about the value of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores as predictors of post-operative mortality. This study was designed to compare the capacities of CTP, MELD and MELD-based indices in predicting mortality for patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent elective extrahepatic surgery.

Methods: The medical records of 79 patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent elective extrahepatic surgery under general anaesthesia from December 2000 to December 2009 were reviewed retrospectively.

Results: The median follow-up period was 21 months, and the mortality rate was 24.1% (n = 19). Among the 19 mortalities, nine (11.4%) occurred while the patient was hospitalized after surgery. Intraoperative transfusion amount (≥700 mL; odds ratio 6.294, P = 0.004) and the integrated MELD score (≥34; odds ratio 6.654, P = 0.007) were significantly correlated with post-operative mortality. CTP score (hazard ratio 1.575, P = 0.012) was significantly correlated with overall mortality.

Conclusions: Integrated MELD may be a more accurate predictor of operative mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing extrahepatic surgery than CTP and other MELD-Na based indices. However, overall mortality may be reflected more accurately by CTP score. Further large-scale study will be needed to validate this result.

Keywords: extrahepatic surgery; liver cirrhosis; mortality.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Elective Surgical Procedures / methods*
  • End Stage Liver Disease / diagnosis*
  • End Stage Liver Disease / etiology
  • End Stage Liver Disease / mortality
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Health Status Indicators*
  • Humans
  • Intraoperative Period
  • Liver Cirrhosis / complications
  • Liver Cirrhosis / mortality*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Postoperative Period
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Republic of Korea / epidemiology
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Survival Rate / trends
  • Young Adult