Prediabetes is not an independent risk factor for incident heart failure, other cardiovascular events or mortality in older adults: findings from a population-based cohort study

Abstract

Background: Whether prediabetes is an independent risk factor for incident heart failure (HF) in non-diabetic older adults remains unclear.

Methods: Of the 4602 Cardiovascular Health Study participants, age≥65 years, without baseline HF and diabetes, 2157 had prediabetes, defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) 100-125 mg/dL. Propensity scores for prediabetes, estimated for each of the 4602 participants, were used to assemble a cohort of 1421 pairs of individuals with and without prediabetes, balanced on 44 baseline characteristics.

Results: Participants had a mean age of 73 years, 57% were women, and 13% African American. Incident HF occurred in 18% and 20% of matched participants with and without prediabetes, respectively (hazard ratio {HR} associated with prediabetes, 0.90; 95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.76-1.07; p=0.239). Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for incident HF associated with prediabetes among 4602 pre-match participants were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.07-1.40; p=0.003) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.85-1.14; p=0.826), respectively. Among matched individuals, prediabetes had no independent association with incident acute myocardial infarction (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.81-1.28; p=0.875), angina pectoris (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.77-1.12; p=0.451), stroke (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.70-1.06; p=0.151) or all-cause mortality (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88-1.11; p=0.840).

Conclusions: We found no evidence that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for incident HF, other cardiovascular events or mortality in community-dwelling older adults. These findings question the wisdom of routine screening for prediabetes in older adults and targeted interventions to prevent adverse outcomes in older adults with prediabetes.

Keywords: Diabetes; Heart failure; Older adults; Prediabetes; Propensity-matched study.