Probability and predictors of patients converting from negative to positive screens for alcohol misuse

Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2014 Feb;38(2):564-71. doi: 10.1111/acer.12260. Epub 2013 Oct 7.

Abstract

Background: Medicare reimburses providers for annual alcohol screening. However, the benefit of rescreening patients a year after a negative screen for alcohol misuse is unknown. We hypothesized that some subgroups of patients who screen negative would have a very low probability of converting to a positive subsequent screen (e.g., <0.1%), calling into question the value of annual alcohol screening for some patient subgroups.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study estimated the probability of converting to a positive screen for alcohol misuse a year after a negative screen among outpatients from 30 Veterans Health Administration (VA) medical centers. Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) alcohol screening scores (range 0 to 12 points) from 2004 to 2008 were obtained from electronic health record data. Eligible patients screened negative on their initial screen (AUDIT-C scores 0 to 3 for men; 0 to 2 for women). The main outcome was a positive subsequent screen (AUDIT-C scores ≥4 men; ≥3 women).

Results: Among 21,081 women and 323,913 men who screened negative on an initial screen, 5.4% and 6.0%, respectively, screened positive a year later. The adjusted probability of converting to a positive subsequent screen varied from 2.1 to 38.9% depending on age, gender, and initial negative screen score. Women, older patients, and those with initial AUDIT-C scores of 0 were least likely to a convert to a positive subsequent screen, while younger men with AUDIT-C scores of 3 were most likely to a convert to a positive subsequent screen.

Conclusions: The probability of a positive subsequent screen varied depending on age, gender, and initial negative screen score but exceeded 2% in all patient subgroups. Annual rescreening appears reasonable for all VA patients who had a negative screen the year prior.

Keywords: Alcoholism and Addictive Behaviors; Decision Making; Screening.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Alcoholism / diagnosis*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Ethnicity
  • False Negative Reactions
  • False Positive Reactions
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / methods*
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Sex Factors
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • United States
  • United States Department of Veterans Affairs