The antiviral efficacy of stavudine depends on the trough concentration of its intracellular metabolite, stavudine-triphosphate (d4T-TP), while the degree of stavudine's mitochondrial toxicity depends on its peak concentration. Rates of mitochondrial toxicity are high when stavudine is used at the current standard pediatric dose (1 mg/kg twice daily [BID]). Evidence from adult work suggests that half of the original standard adult dose (i.e., 20 mg BID) may be equally effective, with markedly less mitochondrial toxicity. We present a population pharmacokinetic model to predict intracellular d4T-TP concentrations in pediatric HIV-infected patients administered a dose of 0.5 mg/kg BID. Our model predicted that the reduced pediatric dose would result in a trough intracellular d4T-TP concentration above that of the reduced 20-mg adult dose and a peak concentration below that of the 20-mg adult dose. The simulated pediatric intracellular d4T-TP at 0.5 mg/kg BID resulted in median peak and trough values of approximately 23.9 fmol/10(6) cells (95% prediction interval [PI], 14.2 to 41 fmol/10(6) cells) and 14.8 fmol/10(6) cells (95% PI, 7.2 to 31 fmol/10(6) cells), respectively. The peak and trough concentrations resulting from a 20-mg BID adult dose were 28.4 fmol/10(6) cells (95% PI, 17.3 to 45.5 fmol/10(6) cells) and 13 fmol/10(6) cells (95% PI, 6.8 to 28.6 fmol/10(6) cells), respectively. Halving the current standard pediatric dose should therefore not compromise antiviral efficacy, while markedly reducing mitochondrial toxicity.