Environmental risk assessment of acid rock drainage under uncertainty: The probability bounds and PHREEQC approach

Abstract

Acid rock drainage (ARD) is a major environmental problem that poses significant environmental risks during and after mining activities. A new methodology for environmental risk assessment based on probability bounds and a geochemical speciation model (PHREEQC) is presented. The methodology provides conservative and non-conservative ways of estimating risk of heavy metals posed to selected endpoints probabilistically, while propagating data and parameter uncertainties throughout the risk assessment steps. The methodology is demonstrated at a minesite located in British Columbia, Canada. The result of the methodology for the case study minesite shows the fate-and-transport of heavy metals is well simulated in the mine environment. In addition, the results of risk characterization for the case study show that there is risk due to transport of heavy metals into the environment.

Keywords: Fate-and-transport modeling; PHREEQC; Probability bounds; Risk assessment; Uncertainty analysis.