A case for the use of receiver operating characteristic analysis of potential clinical efficacy biomarkers in advanced renal cell carcinoma

Future Oncol. 2016 Jan;12(2):175-82. doi: 10.2217/fon.15.290. Epub 2015 Dec 17.

Abstract

Aim: Assess patient-level utility of suggested pretreatment biomarkers of sunitinib in advanced renal cell carcinoma.

Patients & methods: Kaplan-Meier analysis of data from a randomized, Phase II study (n = 292) suggested baseline predictive value for circulating soluble Ang-2 and MMP-2 and HIF-1α percentage of tumor expression. Using this dataset, the sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results: Based on a ROC (sensitivity vs 1 - specificity) threshold AUC value of >0.8, neither Ang-2 (0.67) nor MMP-2 (0.65), nor HIF-1α percentage of tumor expression (0.65), performed appropriately from a patient-selection standpoint.

Conclusion: To properly assess potential biomarkers, sensitivity and specificity characteristics should be obtained by ROC analysis.

Keywords: ROC curves; biomarkers; renal cell carcinoma; serum soluble protein; sunitinib.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Angiopoietin-2 / blood
  • Angiopoietin-2 / metabolism
  • Biomarkers, Tumor*
  • Carcinoma, Renal Cell / metabolism*
  • Carcinoma, Renal Cell / mortality*
  • Carcinoma, Renal Cell / pathology
  • Carcinoma, Renal Cell / therapy
  • Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic
  • Humans
  • Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1, alpha Subunit / blood
  • Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1, alpha Subunit / metabolism
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Kidney Neoplasms / metabolism*
  • Kidney Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Kidney Neoplasms / pathology
  • Kidney Neoplasms / therapy
  • Matrix Metalloproteinase 2 / blood
  • Matrix Metalloproteinase 2 / metabolism
  • Multicenter Studies as Topic
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Prognosis
  • ROC Curve
  • Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
  • Treatment Outcome

Substances

  • Angiopoietin-2
  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1, alpha Subunit
  • Matrix Metalloproteinase 2