Background: The heterogeneous progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) makes prognostication difficult and contributes to high mortality on the waitlist for lung transplantation (LTx). Multi-dimensional scores (Composite Physiologic index [CPI], [Gender-Age-Physiology [GAP]; RIsk Stratification scorE [RISE]) demonstrated enhanced predictive power towards outcome in IPF. The lung allocation score (LAS) is a multi-dimensional tool commonly used to stratify patients assessed for LTx. We sought to investigate whether IPF-specific multi-dimensional scores predict mortality in patients with IPF assessed for LTx.
Methods: The study included 302 patients with IPF who underwent a LTx assessment (2003-2014). Multi-dimensional scores were calculated. The primary outcome was 12-month mortality after assessment. LTx was considered as competing event in all analyses.
Results: At the end of the observation period, there were 134 transplants, 63 deaths, and 105 patients were alive without LTx. Multi-dimensional scores predicted mortality with accuracy similar to LAS, and superior to that of individual variables: area under the curve (AUC) for LAS was 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 86%); CPI 0.75 (sensitivity 67%, specificity 82%); GAP 0.67 (sensitivity 59%, specificity 74%); RISE 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 84%). A separate analysis conducted only in patients actively listed for LTx (n = 247; 50 deaths) yielded similar results.
Conclusions: In patients with IPF assessed for LTx as well as in those actually listed, multi-dimensional scores predict mortality better than individual variables, and with accuracy similar to the LAS. If validated, multi-dimensional scores may serve as inexpensive tools to guide decisions on the timing of referral and listing for LTx.
Keywords: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; Interstitial lung disease; Lung transplantation; Survival.
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