Validation of the albumin-bilirubin grade-based integrated model as a predictor for sorafenib-failed hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver Int. 2018 Feb;38(2):321-330. doi: 10.1111/liv.13527. Epub 2017 Aug 9.

Abstract

Background & aims: Sorafenib is the standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but is challenging after treatment failure. Appropriate criteria for enrolling patients into second-line trials are still limited. In this study, we aimed to establish more objective criteria based on Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) grade to select patients with better post-progression survival (PPS) for second-line treatment.

Methods: Consecutive 404 advanced HCC patients receiving sorafenib were retrospectively enrolled. All patients were in Child-Pugh class A and BCLC stage C with either portal vein invasion or extrahepatic metastasis at the beginning of sorafenib treatment. Radiological evaluation based on mRECIST criteria and clinical assessments with compliance were performed on schedule.

Results: During the median follow-up period of 5.8 months, 310 patients developed progressive disease (PD) and 350 deaths occurred. The PD patients were randomized into derivation and validation cohorts by a 1:1 ratio. The independent predictors of poor PPS in derivation cohort were ALBI grade 3 at PD (hazard ratio [HR]=3.24, P = .002), new extrahepatic lesions (NEH) (HR=1.75, P = .011), and early PD within 4 months (HR=1.88, P = .037). ALBI-PD criteria were proposed by incorporating these three risk factors. In the validation cohort, PPS could be independently predicted by presence of early PD, NEH as well as ALBI grade 3 at PD. Patients within ALBI-PD criteria had significant longer median PPS than those beyond it even in Child-Pugh A (9.7 vs 4.9 months, P = .005) subpopulations.

Conclusions: The ALBI-PD criteria can differentiate PPS and stratify the patients with advanced HCC for the second-line trials or salvage therapy.

Keywords: ALBI-PD criteria; advanced hepatocellular carcinoma; new extrahepatic metastasis; post-sorafenib second-line treatment.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Antineoplastic Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Bilirubin / blood*
  • Biomarkers, Tumor / blood*
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / blood
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / drug therapy*
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / mortality
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / secondary
  • Clinical Decision-Making
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Liver Neoplasms / blood
  • Liver Neoplasms / drug therapy*
  • Liver Neoplasms / mortality
  • Liver Neoplasms / pathology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Staging / methods*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Retreatment
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Serum Albumin, Human / analysis*
  • Sorafenib / therapeutic use*
  • Treatment Failure

Substances

  • Antineoplastic Agents
  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • Sorafenib
  • Bilirubin
  • Serum Albumin, Human