Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cardiovascular risk prediction algorithm for people with severe mental illness (PRIMROSE)

BMJ Open. 2017 Sep 5;7(9):e018181. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-018181.

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the cost-effectiveness of two bespoke severe mental illness (SMI)-specific risk algorithms compared with standard risk algorithms for primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in those with SMI.

Setting: Primary care setting in the UK. The analysis was from the National Health Service perspective.

Participants: 1000 individuals with SMI from The Health Improvement Network Database, aged 30-74 years and without existing CVD, populated the model.

Interventions: Four cardiovascular risk algorithms were assessed: (1) general population lipid, (2) general population body mass index (BMI), (3) SMI-specific lipid and (4) SMI-specific BMI, compared against no algorithm. At baseline, each cardiovascular risk algorithm was applied and those considered high risk (> 10%) were assumed to be prescribed statin therapy while others received usual care.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were accrued for each algorithm including no algorithm, and cost-effectiveness was calculated using the net monetary benefit (NMB) approach. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test assumptions made and uncertainty around parameter estimates.

Results: The SMI-specific BMI algorithm had the highest NMB resulting in 15 additional QALYs and a cost saving of approximately £53 000 per 1000 patients with SMI over 10 years, followed by the general population lipid algorithm (13 additional QALYs and a cost saving of £46 000).

Conclusions: The general population lipid and SMI-specific BMI algorithms performed equally well. The ease and acceptability of use of an SMI-specific BMI algorithm (blood tests not required) makes it an attractive algorithm to implement in clinical settings.

Keywords: coronary heart disease; health economics; mental health.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Algorithms
  • Body Mass Index
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / economics*
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / mortality*
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mental Disorders / complications*
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Economic
  • Primary Health Care
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Sampling Studies
  • State Medicine / economics
  • United Kingdom / epidemiology