IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2017 and projections for 2045

Abstract

Introduction: Since the year 2000, IDF has been measuring the prevalence of diabetes nationally, regionally and globally.

Aim: To produce estimates of the global burden of diabetes and its impact for 2017 and projections for 2045.

Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify published studies on the prevalence of diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance and hyperglycaemia in pregnancy in the period from 1990 to 2016. The highest quality studies on diabetes prevalence were selected for each country. A logistic regression model was used to generate age-specific prevalence estimates or each country. Estimates for countries without data were extrapolated from similar countries.

Results: It was estimated that in 2017 there are 451 million (age 18-99 years) people with diabetes worldwide. These figures were expected to increase to 693 million) by 2045. It was estimated that almost half of all people (49.7%) living with diabetes are undiagnosed. Moreover, there was an estimated 374 million people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and it was projected that almost 21.3 million live births to women were affected by some form of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. In 2017, approximately 5 million deaths worldwide were attributable to diabetes in the 20-99 years age range. The global healthcare expenditure on people with diabetes was estimated to be USD 850 billion in 2017.

Conclusion: The new estimates of diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes and healthcare expenditure due to diabetes present a large social, financial and health system burden across the world.

Keywords: Diabetes prevalence; Epidemiology; Gestational diabetes; Health economics; Impaired glucose tolerance; Mortality.