Transmission dynamics of influenza in two major cities of Uganda

Epidemics. 2018 Sep:24:43-48. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.03.002. Epub 2018 Mar 19.

Abstract

In this paper, we report the epidemic characteristics of the three co-circulating influenza viruses (i.e., A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) in two tropical African cities-Kampala and Entebbe, Uganda-over an eight-year period (2008-2015). Using wavelet methods, we show that influenza epidemics recurred annually during the study period. In most months, two or more influenza viruses co-circulated at the same time. However, the epidemic timing differed by influenza (sub)type. Influenza A/H3N2 caused epidemics approximately every 2 years in both cities and tended to alternate with A/H1N1 or B. Influenza A/H1N1 and B produced smaller but more frequent epidemics and biennial epidemics of these two viruses tended to be synchronous. In addition, epidemics of A/H3N2 were more synchronized in the two cities (located ca.37 km apart) than that of A/H1N1 or influenza B.

Keywords: (sub)type specific; Epidemic frequency; Influenza; Tropical regions; Uganda.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Cities
  • Epidemics
  • Humans
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype*
  • Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / transmission*
  • Recurrence
  • Uganda / epidemiology
  • Urban Population / statistics & numerical data*