Everolimus is approved in Europe and in the USA for the adjunctive treatment of patients aged 2 years and older whose refractory partial-onset seizures, with or without secondary generalization, are associated with tuberous sclerosis complex. The objective of this analysis was to establish a population pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic model describing the relationship between seizure frequency and everolimus exposure to confirm the recommended target concentration range of 5-15 ng/mL. The PK model was a two-compartment model with first order absorption and clearance. CYP3A and P-gp inducers and body-surface area were shown to impact everolimus exposure, justifying dose adjustments. A Poisson distribution was found to adequately describe the random nature of daily seizure counts during the screening phase. A placebo effect on the Poisson seizure mean was implemented as an asymptotic exponential function of time leading to a new steady-state seizure mean. The everolimus effect was implemented as an inhibitory Emax function of Cmin on the seizure mean, where Emax exhibited an asymptotic exponential increase over time to a higher steady-state value. Increasing age was found to decrease the baseline seizure mean and to prolong the half-life of the increase in Emax. The dependence of seizure frequencies on Cmin was explored by simulation. The responder rate increased with increasing Cmin. As Cmin decreased below 5 ng/mL, variability in response became larger and responder rates decreased more rapidly. The results supported the recommended target concentration range for everolimus of 5-15 ng/mL to ensure treatment efficacy.
Keywords: Count data; Everolimus; Non-linear mixed effect models; Population PK/PD; Seizures; Tuberous sclerosis complex.