Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change

David Nogués-Bravo; Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez; Luisa Orsini; Erik de Boer; Roland Jansson; Helene Morlon; Damien A Fordham; Stephen T Jackson

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005

Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change

Trends Ecol Evol. 2018 Oct;33(10):765-776. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005. Epub 2018 Aug 30.

Authors

David Nogués-Bravo¹, Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez², Luisa Orsini³, Erik de Boer⁴, Roland Jansson⁵, Helene Morlon⁶, Damien A Fordham⁷, Stephen T Jackson⁸

Affiliations

¹ Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, Copenhagen, DK-2100, Denmark. Electronic address: dnogues@snm.ku.dk.
² Departamento de Ecología Integrativa, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Avda. Américo Vespucio 26, E-41092, Sevilla, Spain.
³ School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
⁴ Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, C/Lluís Solé i Sabarís s/n, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.
⁵ Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden.
⁶ Institut de Biologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, UMR 8197 CNRS, Paris, France.
⁷ Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, Copenhagen, DK-2100, Denmark; The Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
⁸ Southwest Climate Science Center, US Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA; Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

PMID: 30173951
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005

Abstract

How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.

Keywords: adaptation; dispersal; experiments; extinction; forecast; models; paleoecology.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Adaptation, Physiological
Biodiversity*
Biological Evolution*
Climate Change*
Population Dynamics