Contemporary update of overall prognosis and nomogram to predict individualized survival for Chinese patients with eyelid sebaceous carcinoma

Abstract

Background: The prognosis of Chinese patients with eyelid sebaceous carcinoma (SC) has not been updated for >3 decades. The prognostic predictors are multifactorial, and there is no validated prognostic model for eyelid SC.

Methods: This study included 238 consecutive patients with eyelid SC. All eligible patients were followed up for metastasis and mortality. The predictors of tumor-related survival were explored by Cox analyses. A prognostic nomogram was developed and validated using bootstrap resampling. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were compared between the nomogram and the Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Findings: After a median follow-up period of 55.5 months, 27 (11.3%) patients died of metastatic SC, with a median survival time of 48.0 months. The 5-year and 10-year tumor-related survival rates were 88.1% and 77.9%, respectively. Orbital involvement (HR: 3.11, p = .022), the greatest tumor basal diameter (HR: 1.06, p = .003), the presence of pagetoid spread (HR: 2.90, p = .017), and having lymph node metastasis at initial diagnosis (HR: 13.66, p < .001) were independent risk factors for tumor-related death. A nomogram integrating these 4 factors was developed with a C-index of 0.887, which is significantly better than that of the TNM staging system (p = .002). The risk groups stratified by nomogram scores (p < .001 (low vs intermediate risk); p = .001 (intermediate vs high risk)) displayed better discrimination ability than TNM staging (T1 vs T2: p = .358; T2 vs T3: p = .171; T3 vs T4: p < .001) in patients at an early stage.

Interpretation: The prognosis of Chinese patients with eyelid SC has improved over the last 3 decades, and it is comparable to that of patients from other countries. This nomogram provides more accurate individualized estimates of survival for eyelid SC patients and may guide clinicians in their therapeutic decisions.

Keywords: Eyelid sebaceous carcinoma; Nomogram; Tumor-related survival.