Validation of modified fibrosis-4 index for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with compensated alcoholic liver cirrhosis

Medicine (Baltimore). 2018 Nov;97(48):e13438. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000013438.

Abstract

Recently, modified fibrosis-4 index (mFIB-4) and the easy liver fibrosis test (eLIFT) were developed for predicting liver fibrosis in chronic liver disease patients. We evaluated whether the 2 tests can predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC) patients.A retrospective cohort of 924 ALC patients was assessed for HCC development. Four non-invasive serum biomarkers, mFIB-4, the eLIFT score, fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) were tested using time-dependent analysis of areas under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), DeLong, and log-rank tests.During a median 4.8 years of follow-up, HCC occurred in 83 patients (9.0%). For predicting HCC development at 3 years, the mFIB-4 showed a significantly higher AUROC than APRI and eLIFT scores (0.71 vs 0.61 and 0.56, respectively, all P < .05). The AUROCs of the mFIB-4 for HCC development were not significantly different from those of the FIB-4. According to the mFIB-4, the risk of HCC development was significantly stratified by low index (≤4)/high index (>4) (P < .001 by log-rank test).The mFIB-4 showed better predictability of HCC development than APRI and eLIFT scores, and significantly stratified HCC risk in Asian ALC patients.

Publication types

  • Observational Study
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Alanine Transaminase / blood
  • Area Under Curve
  • Aspartate Aminotransferases / blood
  • Biomarkers, Tumor / blood
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / blood*
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / etiology
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Liver Cirrhosis / blood
  • Liver Cirrhosis / complications
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic / blood*
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic / complications
  • Liver Function Tests
  • Liver Neoplasms / blood*
  • Liver Neoplasms / etiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Platelet Count
  • Predictive Value of Tests

Substances

  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • Aspartate Aminotransferases
  • Alanine Transaminase