Predictive value of inflammatory markers for cancer diagnosis in primary care: a prospective cohort study using electronic health records

Br J Cancer. 2019 May;120(11):1045-1051. doi: 10.1038/s41416-019-0458-x. Epub 2019 Apr 24.

Abstract

Background: Early identification of cancer in primary care is important and challenging. This study examined the diagnostic utility of inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and plasma viscosity) for cancer diagnosis in primary care.

Methods: Cohort study of 160,000 patients with inflammatory marker testing in 2014, plus 40,000 untested matched controls, using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), with Cancer Registry linkage. Primary outcome was one-year cancer incidence.

Results: Primary care patients with a raised inflammatory marker have a one-year cancer incidence of 3.53% (95% CI 3.37-3.70), compared to 1.50% (1.43-1.58) in those with normal inflammatory markers, and 0.97% (0.87-1.07) in untested controls. Cancer risk is greater with higher inflammatory marker levels, with older age and in men; risk rises further when a repeat test is abnormal but falls if it normalises. Men over 50 and women over 60 with raised inflammatory markers have a cancer risk which exceeds the 3% NICE threshold for urgent investigation. Sensitivities for cancer were 46.1% for CRP, 43.6% ESR and 49.7% for PV.

Conclusion: Cancer should be considered in patients with raised inflammatory markers. However, inflammatory markers have a poor sensitivity for cancer and are therefore not useful as 'rule-out' test.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Biomarkers
  • Blood Sedimentation*
  • Blood Viscosity*
  • C-Reactive Protein / analysis*
  • Electronic Health Records*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasms / diagnosis*
  • Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Primary Health Care*
  • Prospective Studies

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • C-Reactive Protein