Nomograms predictive for oncological outcomes in malignant parotid tumours: recurrence and mortality rates of 228 patients from a single institution

Abstract

Purpose: Malignant parotid tumours are rare and multiple prognostic factors exist.

Methods: Through a retrospective study we aimed to identify nomograms predicting recurrence and mortality rates in 228 primary parotid cancers. Patients clinical, treatment and tumour characteristics were retrospectively collected between 1980 and 2005 at our Institution. Factors predictive of disease-free-specific-survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated by univariate and multivariate analysis. Nomograms were then constructed.

Results: The 5- and 10-year DSS rates were 73% and 71.4%, and nomogram was drawn based on five parameters where perineural invasion showed the most significant predicting influence (p < 0.001). The median follow-up was of 95 months and the 5- and 10-year OS rates were 68.7% and 53.1%; six predictive variables (age, histological grade, perineural invasion, pathological lymph node status, resection margins and distant metastasis) were used to create nomogram.

Conclusions: Our nomograms provide a tailored outcome to a patient affected by malignant parotid tumour and give him/her a risk assessment for recurrence and mortality based on individual factors by a concordance index > 0.8.

Keywords: Nomograms; Oncological outcomes; Parotid cancer; Prognostic factors; Survivals.