Background: To develop and validate nomograms that can be used to predict outcomes in individuals suffering alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection.
Methods: A total of 509 AFP-negative HCC patients who received hepatectomy between January 2009 and March 2013 in our center were randomized into training and validation cohorts. Nomograms for both overall and recurrence-free survival (OS and RFS, respectively) were established based on the predictors in the training cohort. Nomograms performance and discriminative power were assessed with concordance index (C-index) values and decision curve analyses (DCA). The results were validated in the validation cohort.
Results: Alkaline phosphatase, liver cirrhosis, tumor size, satellite lesions, microvascular invasion, and Edmondson-Steiner grade were significantly linked to OS and RFS. Sex and tumor number were additional predictors for RFS. The OS nomogram had a C-index value of 0.742, which was better than that for the AJCC eighth edition (0.632), BCLC system (0.553), and JIS score (0.557) (all P < .001). The RFS nomogram C-index was 0.669, which was also superior to that of the AJCC eighth (0.608), BCLC stage (0.554), JIS score (0.551), and model of Gan et al (0.636) (P < .05 for all). Calibration curves indicated a good agreement between observed actual outcomes and predicted values. Kaplan-Meier curves and DCA indicated that nomograms were powerful in discrimination and clinical usefulness. These results were supported by the validation cohort.
Conclusions: These nomograms presented more accurate prognostic prediction in patients with AFP-negative HCC after hepatectomy.
Keywords: alpha-fetoprotein; carcinoma; hepatectomy; hepatocellular; nomogram.
© 2020 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.