An evidence-based strategy to screen for pulmonary arterial hypertension in systemic sclerosis

Abstract

Background: Clinical practice guidelines recommend screening all systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) with yearly echocardiograms. There is a paucity of evidence to support these guidelines.

Research question: Can a prediction model identify SSc patients with a very low probability of PAH and therefore not requiring annual screening echocardiogram?

Study design and methods: We performed a case-control study of 925 unselected SSc subjects nested in a multi-centered, longitudinal cohort. The probability of PAH for each subject was calculated using the results of multivariate logistic regression models. A cut-off was identified for the estimated probability of PAH below which no subject developed PAH (100% sensitivity).

Results: Study subjects were predominantly female (87.5%), with mean (SD) age 58.6 (11.7) years and disease duration of 18.2 (12.2) years. Thirty-seven subjects developed PAH during 5407.97 person-years of observation (incidence rate 0.68 per 100 person-years). Shortness of breath (SOB), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and NT-proBNP were independent predictors of PAH. All SSc-PAH cases had a probability of PAH of >1.1%. Subjects below this cut-off, none of whom had PAH, accounted for 46.2% of the study population.

Interpretation: A simple prediction model identified subjects at very low probability of PAH who could potentially forego annual screening echocardiogram. This represents almost half of SSc subjects in a general SSc population. This study, which is the first evidence-based study for the rational use of follow-up echocardiograms in an unselected SSc cohort, requires validation. The scoring system is freely available online at http://pahtool.ladydavis.ca.