The recalibrated HellenicSCORE based on newly derived risk factors from the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS); the HellenicSCORE II

Abstract

Background: Because of the increased burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), country specific risk prediction models to forecast future CVD events and mortality are recommended, for primary prevention. The aim of this study was to recalibrate the HellenicSCORE, to accurately estimate the 10-year risk CVD mortality of Greek adults.

Methods: Data from the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS) were used (N = 1012; 37.9% males). Information on age, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and total blood cholesterol from adults >40 years of age were derived following validated health survey protocols. Individual scores were calculated using these data and beta-coefficients derived from ESC SCORE.

Results: Both updated HellenicSCORE II charts had lower risk estimates compared to the older version and were closer to the ESC SCORE charts, particularly at the extremes. No significant age difference by sex was observed (mean 59.5 (SD 13.1) years in total) in the population. Women had a significant higher mean total cholesterol compared to men [212.9 (39.5) vs 204.6 (41.2) mg/dl, respectively; p = 0.0343], but smoking prevalence and mean SBP was significantly higher in men [p for all, <0.001]. The mean population HellenicSCORE II score level was between 5.6% (0.2) and 7.9% (3.2) depending on the chart used, with no significant sex differences.

Conclusion: Although the HellenicSCORE II charts were lower, the mean population score was moderately high. This is of great importance because according to ESC guidelines, lifestyle intervention, and drug treatment should be based on an individuals' total cardiovascular risk.

Keywords: HellenicSCORE II; risk; risk assessment; risk estimation; risk factors.