Assessing the effects of metropolitan-wide quarantine on the spread of COVID-19 in public space and households

Mingwang Shen; Zhihang Peng; Yuming Guo; Libin Rong; Yan Li; Yanni Xiao; Guihua Zhuang; Lei Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.019

Assessing the effects of metropolitan-wide quarantine on the spread of COVID-19 in public space and households

Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Jul:96:503-505. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.019. Epub 2020 May 8.

Authors

Mingwang Shen¹, Zhihang Peng², Yuming Guo³, Libin Rong⁴, Yan Li⁵, Yanni Xiao⁶, Guihua Zhuang⁷, Lei Zhang⁸

Affiliations

¹ China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China.
² Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029, PR China.
³ Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
⁴ Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
⁵ Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY 10029, USA; Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Science, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY 10029, USA.
⁶ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, PR China. Electronic address: yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.
⁷ China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China. Electronic address: zhuanggh@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.
⁸ China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China. Electronic address: lei.zhang1@xjtu.edu.cn.

Abstract

Hubei province in China has completed cycle of quarantine-resumption in 23rd Janauary and 8th April 2020, providing a unique opportunity as for now to assess its intervention impact and the pattern of SARS-COV-2 transmission during the quarantine period. In this study, we evaluate the impact of the metropolitan-wide quarantine on the trend and transmission route of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China. The intervention reduces more than 70% of new infections in both households and the public space, as well as the deaths caused by COVID-19 pneumonia. Household transmission is the dominant route of disease spread regardless of quarantine. This will provide important evidence and scientific insights to other worldwide countries that are currently under quarantine.

Keywords: COVID-19; Households; Metropolitan-wide quarantine; Public space.

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus*
COVID-19
China / epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control*
Humans
Pandemics / prevention & control*
Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control*
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2