Background: Dentists should assess pathways influencing the increment of dental caries among children to guide the prevention and treatment of the disease.
Aim: Evaluate the pathways that influence the increment of carious lesions in pre-school children.
Design: This is a 2-year cohort study was conducted with a random sample of 639 pre-school children in southern Brazil. Caries experience, socioeconomic status (SES), social capital, and psychosocial characteristics were obtained at baseline. Increment of dental caries was assessed at 2 years follow-up in 467 children (cohort retention rate of 73.1%). Previously calibrated examiners assess the caries through the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS). Structural equation modeling (SEM) was performed to test the pathways influencing dental caries increment.
Results: Dental caries at baseline was heavily influenced by children's age (SC: 0.381, P < .01), tooth plaque (SC: 0.077, P = .02), parent's perception child oral health (SC: 0.295, P < .01), and household (SC: 0.148, P < .01). Increment of dental caries was directly affected by dental caries at baseline (Standardized Coefficients [SC]: 0.377, P < .01). Indirect paths were not significant.
Conclusions: Dental caries experience was the main factor of direct influence on the increment of caries, reinforcing the theory of risk accumulation over time.
Keywords: child; dental caries; epidemiology; risk assessment; structural equation modeling.
© 2020 BSPD, IAPD and John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.