Objectives: to describe the epidemic trends of COVID-19 over time and by area in the territory covered by Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) from February to May 2020.
Design: descriptive study of COVID-19 cases.
Setting and participants: a new information system was developed to record COVID-19 cases with positive nasopharyngeal swab. Patients resident in the area covered by ATS-MI with symptom onset between February and May 2020 were selected. Different epidemic periods were considered based on the timeline of the various regional and national containment measures.
Main outcome measures: case fatality ratios, incidence rates, and reproduction number by epidemic period and sub-area of ATS-MI.
Results: a total of 27,017 swab-positive COVID-19 cases were included. Mean age was 65 years and males were 45%. Incidence in the ATS-MI area was 776 per 100,000 population. The number of deaths was 4,660, the crude case fatality ratio was 17.3%, higher in males (21.2%) than in females (14.0%). The estimated reproduction number registered its peak (3.0) in the early stages of the epidemic and subsequently decreased. Territorial differences were observed in the epidemic spread, with a higher incidence in the Lodi area.
Conclusions: estimated incidence and case fatality ratios were higher than national estimates for Italy. Each ATS-MI area had different epidemic spread patterns.
Keywords: COVID-19; case fatality ratio; comorbidities information systems.; incidence.