Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil

Nat Commun. 2021 Jan 12;12(1):333. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-19798-3.

Abstract

COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Asymptomatic Diseases
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Intensive Care Units
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Pandemics*
  • Physical Distancing
  • SARS-CoV-2*