Lessons from movement ecology for the return to work: Modeling contacts and the spread of COVID-19

PLoS One. 2021 Jan 22;16(1):e0242955. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242955. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Human behavior (movement, social contacts) plays a central role in the spread of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 was driven by global human movement, and initial lockdown measures aimed to localize movement and contact in order to slow spread. Thus, movement and contact patterns need to be explicitly considered when making reopening decisions, especially regarding return to work. Here, as a case study, we consider the initial stages of resuming research at a large research university, using approaches from movement ecology and contact network epidemiology. First, we develop a dynamical pathogen model describing movement between home and work; we show that limiting social contact, via reduced people or reduced time in the workplace are fairly equivalent strategies to slow pathogen spread. Second, we develop a model based on spatial contact patterns within a specific office and lab building on campus; we show that restricting on-campus activities to labs (rather than labs and offices) could dramatically alter (modularize) contact network structure and thus, potentially reduce pathogen spread by providing a workplace mechanism to reduce contact. Here we argue that explicitly accounting for human movement and contact behavior in the workplace can provide additional strategies to slow pathogen spread that can be used in conjunction with ongoing public health efforts.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Computer Simulation
  • Contact Tracing*
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological
  • Movement
  • Return to Work*
  • Social Interaction
  • Social Network Analysis
  • Transportation
  • Workplace

Grants and funding

This material is based in part upon work supported by the University of Minnesota’s Office of Academic Clinical Affairs COVID-19 Rapid Response Grant (https://clinicalaffairs.umn.edu/umn-covid-19-research) (to MEC, LAW, and MMS), by the National Science Foundation (https://www.nsf.gov/) under Grants DEB-2030509 (to MEC and MMS), DEB-1654609 (to AKS and MEC) and DEB-1556649 (to EWS and ETB) and by the National Socio Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) under funding received from the NSF DBI 1639145. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The contents in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.