Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of dementia: Results of the prospective Three-City Study

Abstract

Background: Emerging epidemiological evidence suggests a relationship between exposure to air pollution and dementia. However, most of the existing studies relied on health administrative databases for the diagnosis of dementia. In a large French population-based cohort (the 3C Study), we assessed the effects of particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and black carbon (BC) on the risk of dementia diagnosed with reliable tools.

Methods: Participants aged ≥65 years were recruited between 1999 and 2001 and followed for 12 years. At baseline and every 2 years, dementia was suspected on the basis of the neuropsychological and neurological examination and confirmed by an independent committee of clinicians. Exposure to NO₂, BC and PM2.5 at the participants' residential address was estimated using land use regression models. For each pollutant and year of follow-up, the 10-year moving average of past exposure was estimated. Multilevel spatial random-effects Cox proportional hazards models were used in which exposure was included as a time-varying variable. Analyses were adjusted for individual (age, sex, education, APOE4 genotype, health behaviours) and contextual (neighbourhood deprivation index) confounders.

Results: At baseline, the median age of the 7066 participants was 73.4 years, and 62% were women. The median follow-up duration was 10.0 years during which 791 participants developed dementia (n = 541 Alzheimer's disease (AD) and n = 155 vascular/mixed dementia (VaD)). The 10-year moving average of PM2.5 concentrations ranged from 14.6 to 31.3 µg/m³. PM2.5 concentration was positively associated with dementia risk: HR = 1.20, 95% CI (1.08-1.32) for all-cause dementia, 1.20 (1.09-1.32) for AD, and 1.33 (1.05-1.68) for VaD per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5 increase. No association was detected between NO₂ or BC exposure and dementia risk.

Conclusion: In this large cohort of older adults, long-term PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased dementia incidence. Reducing PM2.5 emissions might lessen the burden of dementia in aging populations.

Keywords: Air pollution; Black carbon; Cohort; Dementia; Elderly; Fine particulate matter; Incidence; Nitrogen dioxide.