Strategy to reduce adverse health outcomes in subjects highly vulnerable to COVID-19: results from a population-based study in Northern Italy

Abstract

Objectives: This study describes a new strategy to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the elderly and other clinically vulnerable subjects, where general practitioners (GPs) play an active role in managing high-risk patients, reducing adverse health outcomes.

Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Setting: Population-based study including subjects resident in the province of Milan and Lodi.

Participants: 127 735 residents older than 70 years, with specific chronic conditions.

Interventions: We developed a predictive algorithm for overall mortality risk based on demographic and clinical characteristics. All residents older than 70 years were classified as being at low or high risk of death from COVID-19 infection according to the algorithm. The high-risk group was assigned to their GPs for telephone triage and consultation. The high-risk cohort was divided into two groups based on GP intervention: patients who were not contacted and patients who were contacted by their GPs.

Outcome measures: Overall mortality, COVID-19 morbidity and hospitalisation.

Results: Patients with increased risk of death from COVID-19 were 127 735; 495 669 patients were not at high risk and were not included in the intervention. Out of the high-risk subjects, 79 110 were included but not contacted by their GPs, while 48 625 high-risk subjects were included and contacted. Overall mortality, morbidity and hospitalisation was higher in high-risk patients compared with low-risk populations. High-risk patients contacted by their GPs had a 50% risk reduction in COVID-19 mortality, and a 70% risk reduction in morbidity and hospitalisation for COVID-19 compared with non-contacted patients.

Conclusions: The study showed that, during the COVID-19 outbreak, involvement of GPs and changes in care management of high-risk groups produced a significant reduction in all adverse health outcomes.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; public health.