Can CO2 emissions and energy consumption determine the economic performance of South Korea? A time series analysis

Abstract

Following the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDGs), which place emphasis on relevant concerns that encompass access to energy (SDG-7) and sustainable development (SDG-8), this research intends to re-examine the relationship between urbanization, CO₂ emissions, gross capital formation, energy use, and economic growth in South Korea, which has not yet been assessed using recent econometric techniques, based on data covering the period between 1965 and 2019. The present study utilized the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods, while the gradual shift and wavelet coherence techniques are utilized to determine the direction of the causality. The ARDL bounds test reveals a long-run linkage between the variables of interest. Empirical evidence shows that CO₂ emissions trigger economic growth. Thus, based on increasing environmental awareness across the globe, it is necessary to change the energy mix in South Korea to renewables to enable the use of sustainable energy sources and establish an environmentally sustainable ecosystem. Moreover, the energy-induced growth hypothesis is validated. This result is supported by the causality analysis, which shows a one-way causality running from energy consumption to GDP in South Korea. This suggests that South Korea cannot embark on conservative energy policies, as such actions will damage economic progress. Additionally, a unidirectional causality is seen from CO₂ emissions and energy consumption to economic growth. These findings have far-reaching consequences for GDP growth and macroeconomic indicators in South Korea.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; Economic growth; Energy consumption; Gross capital formation; South Korea; Urban population.