Long term simulations of potential oil spills around Cuba

Lars Robert Hole; Victor de Aguiar; Knut-Frode Dagestad; Vassiliki H Kourafalou; Yannis Androulidakis; Heesook Kang; Matthieu Le Hénaff; Amilcar Calzada

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112285

Long term simulations of potential oil spills around Cuba

Mar Pollut Bull. 2021 Jun:167:112285. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112285. Epub 2021 Mar 31.

Authors

Lars Robert Hole¹, Victor de Aguiar², Knut-Frode Dagestad³, Vassiliki H Kourafalou⁴, Yannis Androulidakis⁵, Heesook Kang⁶, Matthieu Le Hénaff⁷, Amilcar Calzada⁸

Affiliations

¹ Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Allegt. 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway. Electronic address: lrh@met.no.
² Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Allegt. 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway. Electronic address: victorm@met.no.
³ Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Allegt. 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway. Electronic address: knutfd@met.no.
⁴ Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Electronic address: vkourafalou@miami.edu.
⁵ Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Allegt. 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway; Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Electronic address: iandroulidakis@rsmas.miami.edu.
⁶ Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Electronic address: hkang@rsmas.miami.edu.
⁷ Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA; NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Electronic address: mlehenaff@rsmas.miami.edu.
⁸ Cuba Institute of Meteorology, La Habana, Cuba.

PMID: 33799150
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112285

Abstract

Simulations over eight years of continuous surface oil spills around Cuba are carried out to identify the most likely stranding (beaching) locations. The open source Lagrangian oil drift model OpenOil is applied with high resolution hydrodynamic forcing. The actual fraction of the released oil mass reaching different regions is calculated, revealing small differences between a light and a heavy crude oil type. Similar stranding rates for the two oil types are found. Another important conclusion is that, due to the high temporal variability in stranding rates, short term simulations of a few weeks are not suitable to assess environmental risk. The highest stranding rates are simulated in winter in Northern Cuba. It is also found that oil could reach Northern Cuba, Yucatan or Florida in about 3-5 days after a spill.

Keywords: Cuba; Eddies; HYCOM; Oil spill; OpenDrift; Stranding.

MeSH terms

Cuba
Environmental Monitoring
Florida
Hydrodynamics
Petroleum Pollution*
Petroleum*

Substances

Petroleum