Chest CT severity score and radiological patterns as predictors of disease severity, ICU admission, and viral positivity in COVID-19 patients

Respir Investig. 2021 Jul;59(4):436-445. doi: 10.1016/j.resinv.2021.02.008. Epub 2021 Mar 19.

Abstract

Background: Chest computed tomography (CT) is a useful tool for the diagnosis of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), although its exact value for predicting critical illness remains unclear. This study evaluated the efficacy of chest CT to predict disease progression, pulmonary complications, and viral positivity duration.

Methods: A single-center cohort study was conducted by consecutively including hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19. The chest CT patterns were described and a total severity score was calculated. The predictive accuracy of the severity score was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic analysis, while a Cox proportional hazards regression model was implemented to identify the radiological features that are linked to prolonged duration of viral positivity.

Results: Overall, 42 patients were included with 10 of them requiring intensive care unit admission. The most common lesions were ground glass opacities (92.9%), consolidation (66.7%), and crazy-paving patterns (61.9%). The total severity score significantly correlated with inflammatory and respiratory distress markers, as well as with admission CURB-65 and PSI/PORT scores. It was estimated to predict critical illness with a sensitivity and specificity of 75% and 70%, respectively. Time-to-event analysis indicated that patients without ground-glass opacities presented significantly shorter median viral positivity (16 vs. 27 days).

Conclusions: Chest CT severity score positively correlates with markers of COVID-19 severity and presents promising efficacy in predicting critical illness. It is suggested that ground-glass opacities are linked to prolonged viral positivity. Further studies should confirm the efficacy of the severity score and elucidate the long-term pulmonary effects of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Chest; Computed tomography; Critical illness; Predict.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19 / diagnostic imaging*
  • COVID-19 / virology*
  • COVID-19 Testing / methods
  • Cohort Studies
  • Critical Illness*
  • Diagnostic Tests, Routine*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Intensive Care Units*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Radiography, Thoracic*
  • Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed*