Risk factors for severity on admission and the disease progression during hospitalisation in a large cohort of patients with COVID-19 in Japan

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate the risk factors contributing to severity on admission. Additionally, risk factors of worst severity and fatality were studied. Moreover, factors were compared based on three points: early severity, worst severity and fatality.

Design: An observational cohort study using data entered in a Japan nationwide COVID-19 inpatient registry, COVIREGI-JP.

Setting: As of 28 September 2020, 10480 cases from 802 facilities have been registered. Participating facilities cover a wide range of hospitals where patients with COVID-19 are admitted in Japan.

Participants: Participants who had a positive test result on any applicable SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests were admitted to participating healthcare facilities. A total of 3829 cases were identified from 16 January to 31 May 2020, of which 3376 cases were included in this study.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: Primary outcome was severe or nonsevere on admission, determined by the requirement of mechanical ventilation or oxygen therapy, SpO2 or respiratory rate. Secondary outcome was the worst severity during hospitalisation, judged by the requirement of oxygen and/orinvasive mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

Results: Risk factors for severity on admission were older age, men, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, obesity and hypertension. Cerebrovascular disease, liver disease, renal disease or dialysis, solid tumour and hyperlipidaemia did not influence severity on admission; however, it influenced worst severity. Fatality rates for obesity, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia were relatively lower.

Conclusions: This study segregated the comorbidities influencing severity and death. It is possible that risk factors for severity on admission, worst severity and fatality are not consistent and may be propelled by different factors. Specifically, while hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and obesity had major effect on worst severity, their impact was mild on fatality in the Japanese population. Some studies contradict our results; therefore, detailed analyses, considering in-hospital treatments, are needed for validation.

Trial registration number: UMIN000039873. https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000045453.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; virology.