Nomograms to predict ipsilateral and contralateral central lymph node metastasis in clinically lymph node-negative patients with solitary isthmic classic papillary thyroid carcinoma

Abstract

Background: Isthmus-originating papillary thyroid carcinoma has unique clinicopathological characteristics. There are no specific guidelines regarding the extent of surgery for isthmic papillary thyroid carcinoma. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics of clinically lymph node-negative patients with solitary isthmic papillary thyroid carcinoma and to determine the best surgical protocol for these patients.

Methods: A total of 904 patients diagnosed with solitary papillary thyroid carcinoma who underwent surgery were retrospectively reviewed. These patients were divided into the isthmic group (246 patients) or lobar group (658 patients). We compared the 2 groups and conducted a multivariate analysis to assess risk factors for ipsilateral and contralateral central lymph node metastasis in isthmic papillary thyroid carcinoma patients. Nomograms for predicting central lymph node metastasis in isthmic papillary thyroid carcinoma patients were developed and internal calibration was performed for these models.

Results: Isthmic papillary thyroid carcinoma patients have a significantly higher incidence of extrathyroidal extension and central lymph node metastasis than do lobar papillary thyroid carcinoma patients. For isthmic papillary thyroid carcinoma patients, sex, BRAF V600E mutation, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis, tumor size, margin, and extrathyroidal extension were independent risk factors of ipsilateral central lymph node metastasis. Body mass index, BRAF V600E mutation, tumor size, location, and extrathyroidal extension were independent risk factors of contralateral central lymph node metastasis. All the above factors were incorporated into nomograms, which showed the perfect discriminative ability.

Conclusion: Based on the predictive nomograms, we proposed a risk stratification scheme and corresponding individualized surgical treatment based on different nomogram scores. In the debate about prophylactic central neck dissection among clinically lymph node-negative patients with solitary isthmic papillary thyroid carcinoma, our nomograms provide the balance to avoid overtreatment and undertreatment through personal risk assessment.