Merits and Demerits of Selective Isolation of Superspreaders: A Mathematical Modeling Study Based upon West Bengal (India) SARS-COV 2 Data

Indian J Community Med. 2021 Jul-Sep;46(3):515-519. doi: 10.4103/ijcm.IJCM_817_20. Epub 2021 Oct 13.

Abstract

Context: All COVID cases and their contacts are considered highly infectious requiring isolation, which blocks the COVID isolation beds and disrupts life in the community.

Aim: To find out the effect of selective isolation and contact tracing of superspreaders as compared with the conventional ongoing protocol.

Settings and design: A mathematical model was designed to look at the effect of isolation and contact tracing of only those with high viral loads (superspreaders) on COVID-19 bed occupancy and overall mortality, in comparison with conventional protocol of isolation and contact tracing of all cases.

Materials and methods: An agent-based model, calibrated to the ongoing West Bengal COVID-19 data, was run for a total of 178 days to find out the effect of the interventions on COVID-19 bed occupancy and mortality.

Results: There is an impressive reduction in the occupancy of COVID isolation beds, even with the preintervention testing rate with no negative impact on mortality.

Conclusions: Strict isolation of superspreaders only, maybe highly effective in reducing the burden on health care and solving the COVID isolation bed crises if the testing rate is significantly increased.

Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019; mathematical modeling; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; superspreader; viral load.