Early signs of geographic spread of COVID-19: lessons learnt from outbreaks in Wuhan 2020 and Nanjing 2021

Int Health. 2022 Nov 1;14(6):660-663. doi: 10.1093/inthealth/ihab080.

Abstract

Background: Knowing the spatiotemporal pattern of the early geographic spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) would inform the preparedness for a possible recurrence of COVID-19.

Methods: We ascertained the number of confirmed cases during the early spread of COVID-19 during the Wuhan outbreak in 2020 and the Nanjing outbreak in 2021.

Results: We observed a speeding-up pattern of geographic spread, in particular to cities of no particular orientation then outflowing to commercial cities during the first month of both the Wuhan and Nanjing outbreaks.

Conclusion: Re-emergence of COVID-19 indicates it is becoming endemic, with new outbreaks and a risk of increased transmission remaining a challenge to local public health institutions. Social distancing and lockdowns should continue in response to any potential widespread and focal outbreaks.

Keywords: COVID-19; city clustering; geographic spread.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Humans
  • SARS-CoV-2