Neural networks applied to 12-lead electrocardiograms predict body mass index, visceral adiposity and concurrent cardiometabolic ill-health

Abstract

Background: Obesity is associated with electrophysiological remodeling, which manifests as detectable changes on the surface electrocardiogram (ECG).

Objective: To develop neural networks (NN) to predict body mass index (BMI) from ECGs and test the hypothesis that discrepancies between NN-predicted BMI and measured BMI are indicative of underlying adiposity and/or concurrent cardiometabolic ill-health.

Methods: NN models were developed using 36,856 12-lead resting ECGs from the UK Biobank. Two architectures were developed for continuous and categorical BMI estimation (normal weight [BMI <25 kg/m²] vs overweight/obese [BMI ≥25 kg/m²]). Models for male and female participants were trained and tested separately. For each sex, data were randomly divided into 4 folds, and models were evaluated in a leave-1-fold-out manner.

Results: ECGs were available for 17,807 male and 19,049 female participants (mean ages: 61 ± 7 and 63 ± 8 years; mean BMI 26 ± 5 kg/m² and 27 ± 4 kg/m², respectively). NN models detected overweight/obese individuals with average accuracies of 75% and 73% for male and female subjects, respectively. The magnitudes of difference between NN-predicted BMI and actual BMI were significantly correlated with visceral adipose tissue volumes. Concurrent hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and/or coronary heart disease explained false-positive classifications (ie, calculated BMI <25 kg/m² misclassified as ≥25 kg/m² by NN model, P < .001).

Conclusion: NN models applied to 12-lead ECGs predict BMI with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Discrepancies between NN-predicted and calculated BMI may be indicative of underlying visceral adiposity and concomitant cardiometabolic perturbation, which could be used to identify individuals at risk of cardiometabolic disease.

Keywords: 12-Lead ECG; Adiposity; Cardiometabolic; Neural networks; Obesity.